In this high risk article we try provide guidance on those industry advances expected in Africa in 2020. (We also “mark our homework” on our bets for 2019). We hope that you, as reader, gain strategic advantage in our attempts at commercial real estate industry “crystal balling”!
“When America sneezes, the whole world catches a cold”
Similarly, the performance and state of Sandton, Bryanston and Rosebank – as representatives for prestigious office nodes in South Africa (see here) – are useful indicators of SA’s blue chip office market as a whole.
Going more granular, the above three nodes are useful barometers** for the state of Johannesburg’s office market as at Oct 2019.
(** With no disrespect intended to other major office nodes, by SAPOA rentable area size, within Johannesburg – namely: JHB CBD (1,884.0K m²), Braamfontein (444.6K m²), Parktown (439.6K m²), Randburg (430.7K m²) and Woodmead (429.6K m²))
First, some fundamentals – how do the nodes compare?
Bryanston is your classic South African decentralised, high quality node. Not pedestrian friendly, and with generally reasonable access to retail, it is surrounded by high income residential suburbs, and transport-serviced by road.
Sandton and Rosebank are similar blue chip office nodes: they boast access to rail, enjoy high density zoning, and are supported by high density residential – conducive to a live-work-play environment.
This below image explains how developed or undeveloped the nodes are (calculation below: office rentable area divided by land use for office).
In other words: for every square meter of office land, how many square meters of rentable area has been built. For example, looking at below, for every 1 m² of land dedicated to office, Bryanston has 0.38 m² of office built)